March 2025 Monthly Report

Read the Ballinger Monthly Report for March below.

Most of the chief beneficiaries of the ‘Trump trade’ – the dollar, stocks, bond yields, and the rest – have started to reverse as markets question their underpinnings. From their peaks ahead of the inauguration, the Magnificent 7 are down 9%, the dollar index is 3% lower, and the 10-year Treasury yield has plunged by 50bps.

As a result, the dollar weakened broadly in February. Tariffs are yet to materialise in the way that Trump had promised on the campaign trail, and instead the uncertainty began to generate fear around a US economic slowdown. Meanwhile, Europe is approaching a fiscal crossroads now that it can no longer solely rely on a US security guarantee.