September 2024 Monthly Report

Read the Ballinger Monthly Report for September below.

Confidence continued to grow in US disinflationary story in August, and the data cemented a switch in focus to the deteriorating labour market. That meant a ramping up in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts that turned broad dollar weakness into the main story of the late summer.

The combination of imminent US rate cuts and the still healthy chances of a global economic soft landing meant that the risk-sensitive G10 benefitted the most, even as there were rate cuts for both top performers – SEK and NZD.

Elsewhere, the euro and sterling both hit their highest levels in over a year, while the yen surged on the back of a carry trade purge that reconnected it with its typical fundamentals. The pace of labour market loosening in the US and whether the high expectations for Fed cuts can stick are set to be the hottest topics for September.