April 20, 2023

“The Euro is receiving support from the hawkish comments made by ECB’s Knot. Tomorrow’s release of the S&P Global PMIs for the Eurozone will provide fresh insights into economic activity. Later today, there will be several Eurozone data releases, including the February Trade Balance and April Consumer Confidence. The ECB will also be publishing the minutes from its previous policy meeting, and Lagarde’s speech will be closely watched.”

Sam Cornford, Partner – Head of Trading

 

Main Headlines

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has warned that inflation is still a major concern, and the central bank is taking measures to lower it. Williams, who is also the vice-chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, did not offer any personal opinion on the future of monetary policy. However, he did indicate that recent central bank forecasts suggest the possibility of further tightening to combat inflation, and he did not contradict the market’s expectations regarding the Fed’s rates.

The UK must make it easier for overseas staff to work remotely in London to prevent the UK capital from falling further behind New York on the global financial services ranking list, according to a report by TheCityUK. The report highlights the challenges faced by the UK’s financial services industry, which is being increasingly challenged by Singapore, France, and Germany. Although the UK remains the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in financial services in Europe, some companies are choosing to list abroad. The report calls for measures to make cross-border remote working more accessible, among other recommendations.

 

GBP

Sterling is stronger against the dollar and weaker against euro this morning. Strikes by Germany’s Verdi trade union have caused virtual emptiness at Dusseldorf, Hamburg, and Cologne Bonn airports. Nearly 100,000 people will be affected by aviation security worker strikes at the three airports, with around 700 departing flights to be cancelled. The union has been negotiating with the BDLS aviation security association for pay increases for night, weekend, and public holiday shifts, but no agreement has been reached. The strike will widen as security staff at Stuttgart airport are expected to join the walkouts tomorrow.

EUR

Euro is well bid against most major currencies overnight. Airports in Dusseldorf, Hamburg and Cologne Bonn were virtually empty today in the first of another round of strikes called by Germany’s Verdi trade union over the cost of living crisis. Nearly 100,000 people will be affected by aviation security worker strikes today and tomorrow at the three airports, airport association ADV said, with around 700 departing flights to be cancelled. The union said it has been negotiating with the BDLS aviation security association to push for pay increases for night, weekend and public holiday shifts, with no breakthrough in sight. Tomorrow the strike is set to widen as Verdi has called on security staff at Stuttgart airport to join the walkouts, prompting the airport to cancel all departures.

USD

The dollar is weaker than most major currencies in the early morning trade. The latest report by the Federal Reserve indicates that US economic activity has not changed significantly recently. Employment growth has moderated, and price increases appear to be slowing. The report also reflects the aftermath of the mid-March failure of two large regional banks that shook confidence in the US financial sector, leading regulators to take emergency measures to contain the fallout. The report indicates a decline in lending and easing of elevated price pressures, but there is no indication of an economy on the verge of a downturn or a significant rise in unemployment.

 

Markets

European stock markets started the day with declines as investors evaluated corporate earnings. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell by 0.3% at 9:24 a.m. in London, with mining shares dropping by 1.1%, and autos down by 3%. Banks and insurance sectors, however, witnessed increases, rising by around 0.3%. The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged yesterday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 79.62 points or 0.23% to 33,897.01. The Nasdaq Composite edged up by 3.81 points, or 0.03%. The mixed bag of corporate earnings, which included strong results from medical technology companies and weakness in Netflix shares, was under scrutiny by investors.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

8:00 a.m.: Germany March PPI
8:00 a.m.: Denmark April Consumer Confidence
8:45 a.m.: France April Manufacturing Confidence, Business Survey
11:00 a.m.: Euro-area Feb. Trade Balance
12:00 p.m.: Portugal March PPI
1:30 p.m.: ECB March Meeting Account
3:15 p.m.: ECB’s Visco speaks
4:00 p.m.: Euro-area April Consumer Confidence
5:00 p.m.: ECB’s Holzmann Speaks
5:30 p.m.: BOE’s Tenreyro speaks
ECB’s Lagarde speaks
France March Retail Sales

Corporate Events

Earnings include Volvo, Sartorius, Sartorius Stedim Biotech, Schindler, WH Smith, AT&T, Philip Morris, American Express, Union Pacific, Blackstone, CSX, Nucor

LVMH, Hermes International hold AGMs

 

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