April 5, 2023
“The dollar hit 2-month lows yesterday as the US JOLTS Job Openings for February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years. All eyes will be on the US private jobs data reporting and the ISM Services PMI releases later today.”
Sam Cornford, Partner – Head of Trading
The Biden administration unveiled its ultimate instructions on how clean energy firms can acquire extra tax credits when investing in American communities and businesses that are connected to fossil fuels. The Inflation Reduction Act renewed a 30% tax credit for green energy ventures, and also granted an additional 10% boost for those investing in “energy communities.” In other news, Former US President Donald Trump was charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business. The charges stem from allegations that he arranged hush-money payments to two women before the 2016 US election. This makes Trump the first sitting or former US president to confront criminal charges.
Unison, a UK Government workers union has announced that employees of the Environment Agency in England, will participate in a four-day strike this month due to a disagreement over wages. They have stated that it had decided to act as government ministers had made no effort to arrange negotiations. In other news, preliminary data from the automobile industry revealed that new car registrations in the UK had increased for the eighth consecutive month in March, with a rise of over 17% compared to the previous year. It was also reported that March saw the largest number of registrations for battery electric cars in history.
Sterling is well bid against most major currencies overnight. This morning, the FTSE 100 made modest gains in early trading as investors awaited data on the services sector. The sector has been grappling with surging inflation and slowing economic growth for months, but it is expected to stabilize in March. In other news, a group of tax experts cautioned that a levy implemented by the UK on the revenues of major tech companies in 2020 as an interim measure may become permanent. The introduction of the levy was prompted by concerns over the insufficient tax paid by some of the largest tech companies. In its first year, the measure generated £358 million.
Euro is stronger against the dollar and weaker against sterling this morning. In the wake of the merger of Credit Suisse with its rival UBS, Switzerland’s financial regulator FINMA urged for greater authority to penalize and publicly identify banks that violate regulations. French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in China just before EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, as the two European leaders strive to enhance relations with their crucial economic partner. They plan to discuss concerns about current trade threats and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The dollar is weaker than most major currencies in the early morning trade. Yesterday evening, the Pentagon declared that the United States would be providing $2.6 billion military aid package to Ukraine, including three air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets, and fuel trucks. This support comes as Ukraine gears up for a spring offensive against the Russian forces that have invaded their territory. In other news, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is scheduled to have a meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, marking the first time such a meeting will take place on US soil. China, which considers Taiwan to be its own territory, has threatened retaliation in response to the plan.
European equity futures and Asian shares slipped as concerns persisted over the path of global monetary policy and the health of US banks. New Zealand’s dollar rallied, and the nation’s stocks retreated after the central bank raised interest rates by more than expected. Stocks in Europe may struggle for traction at open as Euro Stoxx 50 contracts dropped about 0.2%. Investors in the region are awaiting the release of March purchasing manager index data for trading cues.
Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)
8:00 a.m.: Germany Feb. Factory Orders
8:45 a.m.: France Feb. Industrial Production
9:00 a.m.: Spain Feb. Industrial Output
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area March S&P Global PMIs
10:30 a.m.: UK March S&P Global PMIs
11:15 a.m.: ECB’s Vujcic and Vasle speak
11:15 a.m.: BOE’s Tenreyro speaks
2:15 p.m.: US March ADP Employment
2:30 p.m.: US Feb. Trade Balance
3:45 p.m.: US March S&P Global PMIs
4:00 p.m.: US March Services Index
4:00 p.m.: ECB’s Lane speaks
Poland Rate Decision
UBS annual general meeting in Basel
Earnings include Sodexo, Barry Callebaut, Conagra Brands