August 15, 2025

“All eyes are on Anchorage this evening, where Trump is set to welcome Putin on US soil to discuss the conflict in Ukraine. US retail sales and sentiment data are up first though this afternoon.”

Tim Hallinan – Trading Director

USD

After some signs of softness in the CPI inflation print earlier this week, yesterday’s PPI came in much higher than expected at 0.9% m/m. Markets are still heavily betting on a September rate cut but pared back their expectations somewhat and the dollar rose as they pencilled in a higher core PCE print later this month. The big event today is naturally the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska later. Anything could happen, honestly, with the Trump administration describing it as a ‘feel-out’ opportunity that may set the stage for a meeting with Zelenskyy. Positive news towards a ceasefire or an end to the conflict would be a good outcome for European FX and bad for the dollar, while a disappointing outcome could hand it some support via the oil and geopolitical risk channels. We also get some retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment data this afternoon. Retail sales are expected at 0.6%, matching the previous figure, and sentiment is set to have improved a touch in August.

GBP

A better-than-expected Q2 growth support dampened a dollar-driven move lower in GBPUSD and pushed GBPEUR to its highest level since early July yesterday. The details were not quite as favourable as the headline 0.3%, but any good news is helpful given the gloom that has built up on the jobs market over recent months. The next major piece of data is the July inflation report due on Wednesday.

EUR

The Alaska meeting could be a critical milestone for the euro, which has suffered significantly from high energy prices and increased geopolitical risk since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. An end to the conflict would remove a major obstacle to a higher EURUSD, and any indication that it is likely to drag on would dampen eurozone sentiment. On the data side, it is all about the US today and investors will look towards the eurozone PMIs next week.

Markets

European stocks have rallied heading into the Alaska meeting today – the Euro Stoxx 50 is up nearly 2% in the past two days. The major US indexes are taking a breather, meanwhile, having traded flat in the second half of the week.

Main Economic Events (All Times CET)

2:30pm: US Retail Sales
3:15pm: US Industrial Production
4:00pm: US UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:30pm: Trump and Putin meet in Alaska

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