March 29, 2023

“The US dollar rose slightly against most major currencies this morning, stabilizing after recent declines. It gained considerably on the yen, which has been volatile as Japan’s fiscal year-end approaches. Meanwhile, European gas prices have dropped 88% since August, easing concerns about storage levels and potentially allowing the ECB to be less aggressive with interest rates.”

Tim Hallinan – Trading Director

Main Headlines

After a period of instability in the banking sector dampened investor interest in risky debt, a US labelling company named Multi-Colour Corporation, operating as Labl, has broken the drought of issuances in the $1.4tn US junk bond market. The company issued a $300mn bond with a maturity date in 2028 and a yield of 9.5%. While the issuance was not very large, it is significant as Labl was the first US sub-investment grade borrower to tap the market since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The funds raised will be partially used to finance a potential acquisition.

The UK government has been strongly criticized by its independent climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee, for its lack of preparedness for the effects of global warming. The report highlights multiple shortcomings, including insufficient progress in reducing water consumption and leakage and a lack of clear strategies to protect the agriculture sector from changing weather conditions. Inadequate monitoring systems to track and review progress towards building resilience to climate change were also identified as a shortcoming.

GBP

Sterling is weaker than most major currencies in the early morning trade. Jeremy Hunt plans to inject £3bn into the NHS to fund a new pay deal for health workers, with the hope that it will put an end to public sector strikes. However, efforts to settle a deal with teachers have become bitter. The UK government is due to release a report recommending state subsidies for the production of low-carbon aeroplane fuel made from household waste. The scale of these subsidies is still being negotiated with the Treasury.

EUR

Euro is stronger against sterling and weaker against the dollar this morning. The consumer sentiment index in Germany is predicted to increase slightly in April due to a decrease in energy prices, but a full recovery is not expected in the near future. The GfK institute forecasts a rise from -30.6 in March to -29.5 in April, which is slightly below analysts’ expectations of -29.0 according to a Reuters poll. Russia has stated that it will not reconsider its decision to suspend its participation in the New START arms control treaty, despite the US decision to stop exchanging some data on its nuclear forces.

USD

The dollar is well bid against most major currencies overnight. A lawsuit by Republican states challenging a Biden administration rule allowing socially conscious investing by retirement plans will not be transferred to another court, according to a federal judge in Texas. The judge rejected claims of “judge shopping” and stated that the Biden administration had not provided evidence that the litigation did not belong in his court or that plaintiffs were attempting to manipulate the process. Adidas AG has decided to withdraw a request to reject a Black Lives Matter application for a trademark featuring three parallel stripes after initially pursuing it.

Markets

European stocks rose alongside Asian shares as the Hong Kong market rallied on a planned revamp of Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. that bodes well for Chinese technology companies. US equity futures advanced. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.6%, with tech and consumer shares gaining the most. UBS Group AG rose after the Swiss lender brought back a former CEO to oversee the acquisition of Credit Suisse Group AG. A gauge of Asian stocks rose for a second day as benchmarks in Japan and Australia also increased.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

10:00 a.m.: ECB’s Kazimir speaks
10:30 a.m.: UK Feb. Mortgage Approvals
11:30 a.m.: BOE releases financial policy report on bank risk
2:30 p.m.: Czech Repurchase Rate
4:00 p.m.: US Feb. Pending Home Sales
4:00 p.m.: Fed’s Barr appears before House Financial Services Panel
6:00 p.m.: Russia Feb. Industrial Production

Corporate Events

Earnings include Next

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