March 6, 2023

March 6, 2023

“Investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve may return to its aggressive rate hike path, as robust economic data continues to emerge. This has caused a general decline in the value of the US dollar this morning, as investors await testimony from Chairman Powell and anticipate the release of the February jobs report, which is expected to impact the hawkishness of the US central bank.”

Tim Hallinan – Trading Director

Main Headlines

Foreign governments may be able to access US tax dollars through the Biden administration’s subsidies for green technology investments due to global minimum tax rules. The OECD deal signed by 130 of the world’s leading economies requires multinational companies to pay a minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15%, creating uncertainty for members of the Global Business Alliance on how new US clean energy tax credits will be affected.

The UK government’s levelling-up department has revealed that it will spend almost £2.5bn less than planned on regeneration projects this year, with the majority of unspent funds intended for capital spending on housing-related projects. The government has cited housing market turmoil and delivery delays as the reasons for the cuts, including a £1bn reduction in the budget for new affordable homes.

GBP

Scottish Power’s CEO has warned that the UK government’s failure to reform the planning process for large infrastructure projects could result in a missed opportunity to stimulate the economy and accelerate the transition to renewable energy. The NHS capital budget’s shortfall of almost £2bn by 2027/28 has led officials to consider which of the government’s flagship plans to build 40 new hospitals by 2030 to delay. In February, new car registrations in Britain increased by 25%, and it is expected that nearly half a million plug-in cars will be on the road by the end of 2023.

EUR

Euro is well bid against most major currencies this morning. Public transport in France will face significant disruptions on Tuesday due to industrial action over the government’s pension overhaul, according to the transport minister and several public transport authorities. The prime minister’s reported scepticism about re-joining the EU’s €95.5bn science programme has raised concerns among scientists, despite positive outcomes from Northern Ireland talks that had been blocking UK access. the Swiss National Bank confirmed its annual loss of 132.5 billion Swiss francs

USD

The dollar is stronger against sterling and weaker against euro this morning. US and European companies that have been borrowing at low interest rates are facing potential ratings downgrades as borrowing costs have risen following the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat inflation. Investors are now demanding an annual interest rate of around 9% from US businesses with low scores from rating agencies, up from just below 5% in March 2021. The Pentagon has denied a request from the Air Force in Alaska to shoot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon.

Markets

Global stock markets were steady this morning as investors waited to see if Treasury yields would extend last week’s declines and assessed the impact of China’s decision to set a lower economic growth target. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index opened modestly firmer and US equity futures were little changed, after a Friday rally driven by conviction the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates beyond the peak levels already priced in around 5.4%. Meanwhile, Chinese leaders set a lower-than-expected economic growth goal that implied Beijing is unlikely to deploy large-scale stimulus.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

8:30 a.m.: Switzerland Feb. CPI
8:30 a.m.: Hungary Jan. Retail Sales
9:30 a.m.: Germany Feb. S&P Global Construction PMI
10:00 a.m.: UK Feb. Car Registrations
10:30 a.m.: Euro-area March Sentix Investor Confidence
10:30 a.m.: UK Feb. S&P/CIPS Construction PMI
11:00 a.m.: Euro-area Jan. Retail Sales
11:30 a.m.: Germany to sell bills

Corporate Events

Earnings include Emirates Telecom, Trip.com

 

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