Morning Report – Friday 16th October

Main Headlines

Donald Trump and Joe Biden both took questions via video link from voters on different television networks last night. Trump fielded questions on his Covid-19 diagnosis, tax returns and refused to denounce the far right conspiracy theory QAnon. Biden offered details on his policies, and was relatively placid by comparison.

London will be placed into the Governments ‘Tier 2’ as of Friday at midnight. This means that people will not be allowed to socialise with anyone outside their household or a group of 6 indoors. This was welcomed by mayor Sadiq Khan, in stark contrast to the mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham who unanimously rejected being put into Tier 3.

US jobless claims rose to 898,000 for the week commencing October 10th, its highest level since August. The economy has still not replaced 10.7 million jobs lost during the pandemic. There was not much news on the fiscal stimulus front, and the chance of a stimulus package before the election remains very low.

GBP

The pound continues to depreciate against the dollar and euro this morning, continuing the trend seen yesterday. Boris Johnson will decide after the EU Summit finishes today whether he will continue negotiations with the EU or walk away with no deal. Michel Barnier said yesterday that he would like to speed up negotiations, but David Frost said he was “disappointed” with the outcome of the council meeting. Key differences still remain.

EUR

The euro is trading relatively flat against the dollar this morning. The EU Summit continues today, but will do so without Ursula Von der Leyen, who left as a precaution yesterday when one of her team tested positive for Covid-19. EU leaders are keeping their cards close to their chest and refusing to give a clear signal for prospects of a deal.

USD

The dollar has fallen against a set of major currencies this morning, including the Japanese Yen. The day will be dominated by the fallout by the video Town Halls, and Trumps refusal to denounce a far right conspiracy theory. Two members of Kamala Harris’s travelling party tested positive for Covid-19 and the Vice Presidential candidate is self-isolating as a precaution.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times BST)
7:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Sept. New Car Registrations
9:00 a.m.: Italy Sept. CPI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Aug. Trade Balance, Sept. CPI
1:30 p.m.: U.S. Sept. Retail Sales
5:00 p.m.: Russia Sept. PPI

U.K. sovereign debt rated by Moody’s, France rated by DBRS