Morning Report – Friday 27th November

Jon Robson, Head of Trading

“Most asset classes are unchanged over the past 24 hours due to the Thanksgiving holiday however, there were big swings in the cryptocurrency markets reminiscent of 2017. Bitcoin, the most adopted digital alternative, was down over 13% at one point after falling short of all-time highs earlier in the week. These moves are likely influenced by a handful of “whales”, taking advantage of the increased liquidity, resultant from the recent buying frenzy.”

Main Headlines

Boris Johnson unveiled his tough new Covid-19 restrictions, which saw most of the country put under Tier 2 and Tier 3 restrictions. In many cases, regions were put into tougher restrictions than before the national lockdown despite a fall in their Covid-19 case rate and Johnson has taken criticism for this counterintuitive approach.

The American Automobile Association predicted that thanksgiving travel fell by only 10% yesterday, which means approximately 50 million Americans moved around the country yesterday. This worrying sign comes as New York posted yet another record number of cases yesterday and the US recorded the highest single-day Coronavirus death toll since May on Wednesday.

GBP

The pound is higher against the dollar and unchanged against the euro in early morning trading today. Brexit negotiations are set to continue this weekend, after Michel Barnier’s self-quarantine ends today. Barnier also called for an “urgent” meeting with EU officials today on fisheries, which is good news as it looks like he could be asking for more concessions from the EU. This is a positive sign, but time for a deal is running out.

EUR

The euro is trading close to a 3-month high against the greenback. Today marks the end to a hectic week for EU economic data and official speakers, with only business confidence surveys for the Eurozone expected. These will likely show a fall in business confidence compared to the last report as most of the EU was plunged into national lockdowns.

USD

The dollar is mostly unchanged against a set of major currencies, but is losing ground against the Japanese Yen. US markets were closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, and the theme continues today as there are no economic releases or policy speakers are expected today. It is expected to be a quiet day for the dollar as markets take a break in the lead up to Christmas, and investors may spend the end of a crazy month partaking in Black Friday deals.

Markets

Global equities are taking a step back as investors evaluate the true value of stocks after a month of record-breaking gains in the stock market. There are marginal gains in S&P 500 futures, but the FTSE 100 is slightly lower. Bond prices also fell as investors weighed up the grim short term outlook for the economy, while Oil prices took a pause as they hit 8-month highs yesterday.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)

7:00 a.m.: Germany Oct. Import Price Index
7:00 a.m.: Turkey Nov. Economic Confidence
7:45 a.m.: France 3Q GDP, Nov. CPI, Oct. PPI, Consumer Spending
8:00 a.m.: Spain Oct. Retail Sales
9:00 a.m.: Italy Nov. Consumer, Manufacturing Confidence
9:30 a.m.: ECB’s Panetta speaks
10:00 a.m.: ECB’s Schnabel speaks
10:00 a.m.: Italy Oct. PPI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Nov. Economic Confidence