Morning Report – Monday 19th October

Main Headlines

Boris Johnson will warn business leaders that “time is running out” before the end of the transition period. On Friday, the PM said the Government would seek an Australia-style trade agreement, rather than a Canada-style agreement which means the relationship might not be as close as originally thought.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a stimulus package must be agreed by Tuesday if there is any chance that it will pass before the election. Pelosi and Mnuchin will have talks later today to try and thrash out a deal. Donald Trump continued his electoral campaign over the weekend, and urged Governors to relax Coronavirus restrictions.

Coronavirus cases continued to rise in Europe over the weekend. London and Paris, as well as other major European cities were in lockdown for the first time since the ‘second wave’ broke out. Italian lawmakers are also considering extra restrictions similar to the UK, where restaurants will close at 10pm and school times are rearranged to avoid congestion.

GBP

The pound is trading higher against the euro and dollar this morning. The pound is appreciating on the news that British officials are considering re-writing the law-breaking internal market bill in an attempt to rescue trade talks with the EU. A trade agreement in some form, is still on the table and the consensus among major banks is that a deal will be agreed.

EUR

The euro is trading relatively flat against the dollar, but losing ground to the pound this morning. A host of ECB members are set to speak today including Chief Economist Phillip Lane and President Christine Lagarde. Investors will be listening out for any mention of how the ‘second wave’ and subsequent tighter restrictions will affect the eurozone economy.

USD

The dollar is lower against most major currencies this morning. News out of Washington that a stimulus bill could be agreed by Tuesday has been a signal for risk-on assets, and so US equities have risen while the dollar has fallen. The US is light on the data front today, and so markets will be fine-tuned to any official news or leaks on US stimulus progress ahead of the deadline tomorrow.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times BST)
8:15 a.m.: ECB’s Guindos speaks
9:00 a.m.: Spain Aug. Trade Balance
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Aug. Construction Output
12:15 p.m.: ECB’s de Cos speaks
12:30 p.m.: ECB’s Mersch speaks
1:30 p.m.: ECB’s Lagarde speaks
1:40 p.m.: ECB’s Lane speaks
2:30 p.m.: BOE’s Ben Broadbent speaks
3:05 p.m.: BOE’s Cunliffe speaks (and again at 4 p.m.)

ECB’s “Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice”
IMF/World Bank meetings continue
Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference continues
OPEC’s JMMC reviews compliance with pledged cuts
JODI publishes oil-export data for August