Morning Report – Thursday 11th March

Jon Robson, Head of Trading

“It is unlikely that we will see much reaction in the euro from the ECB later today, as its main focus will be on rising bond yields. CPI data showed that U.S. consumer prices grew slightly slower in February leading market participants to trim bets on a rapidly accelerating inflation.”

Main Headlines

Congress gave final approval on Wednesday to President Biden’s sweeping, nearly $1.9 trillion stimulus package, as Democrats acted over unified Republican opposition to push through an emergency pandemic aid plan that carries out a vast expansion of the country’s social safety net. The House passed the bill in a narrow 220 to 211 vote, with all but one Democrat voting in favour and every Republican voting against it, paving the way for Biden to sign it into law on Friday.

UK food manufacturers are facing millions of pounds in extra costs because of Brexit red tape from next month when the European Commission introduces new layers of bureaucracy on food imports, the industry has warned. The new EU legislation covering multi-ingredient products, ranging from chocolate bars to curry sauces, is expected to increase the volume of UK export health certificates required to send food to the EU by up to one-third, industry associations warned.

GBP

Sterling is higher against the dollar and weaker against the euro this morning. A Government representative is set to be dispatched to the US to help counter the EU’s efforts to turn President Biden’s administration against the UK over its actions in Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, Brussels hit back in a row with Boris Johnson over coronavirus vaccine exports, with European officials urging the U.K. to come clean about its exports of vaccines.

EUR

The euro is stronger versus other majors overnight. The President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde faces a great challenge to respond to a variety of economic and financial risks at today’s policy meeting, as the ECB battles the bond market. Most economists expect the ECB to extend its €1.85 trillion bond-buying program for another three months past the end-date of March 2022. Lagarde asked staff in January to study different ways of analysing rising borrowing costs.

USD

The dollar is weaker against most majors in the early morning trade. The Biden administration is struggling to address an influx of unaccompanied minors attempting to cross the southern US border as figures confirmed a sharp jump in the weeks since Joe Biden took office. US Customs and Border Protection announced on Wednesday that 100,441 people had attempted entry along the southern border in February — a 28 per cent increase from January, which the number of unaccompanied minors rising by 62 per cent.

Markets

China’s CSI 300 index rallied the most in about two months, extending a rebound as the nation’s key week-long legislative meeting concludes. Technology stocks led a wider Asian rally. Nasdaq 100 contracts outperformed and S&P 500 futures climbed after the latter benchmark rose a second day, with financial and materials shares benefiting from a rotation to value. Ten-year Treasury yields held well below their recent one-year highs, as the market turned its attention from Wednesday’s tepid auction to the sale of 30-year debt Thursday. Crude climbed toward $65 a barrel, gold rose.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

8:00 a.m.: Turkey Jan. current account

11:00 a.m.: Italy sells bonds

12:00 p.m.: Serbia rate decision

1:45 p.m.: ECB rate decision

2:30 p.m.: ECB’s Lagarde speaks

2:30 p.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims

OPEC Oil Market Report

Corporate Events

Earnings include Generali, Atlantia, WPP, Rolls-Royce, Wm Morrison, De’ Longhi, JCDecaux

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