Morning Report – Thursday 16th April

Main Headlines

Trump will unveil guidelines to ease stay-at-home rules today as he said the virus showed signs of plateauing in some regions. Recent data suggest the U.S. has “passed the peak” on new cases, and these developments “have put us in a very strong position.” He yesterday held a marathon series of calls with dozens of business leaders. Executives pressed him to dramatically increase testing to restore public confidence.

U.S. and European futures slipped, while Asian stocks headed for their steepest loss in two weeks after poor earnings and economic data from the world’s largest economy. Treasuries edged down after recent steep gains. WTI was anchored near $20 a barrel after closing at an 18-year low.

GBP

The head of the International Monetary Fund has suggested the UK should ask for an extension to its post-Brexit transition period to ease uncertainty at a time when the world economy is feeling the effects of the pandemic. In her interview with the BBC, the IMF managing director praised the emergency measures taken by the finance ministry and Bank of England.

EUR

Germany will allow some smaller shops to reopen next week and schools to gradually restart in early May. Italy saw its lowest tally of new cases in four and half weeks, while fatalities in France rose to a record. Following a consolidation period of mixed bets on the euro’s direction, price action since Wednesday reveals traders see increased risks that the currency will weaken in the short term.

USD

The dollar jumped across the board yesterday, with EM currencies including the rupiah and won getting pummelled. The latest tally of initial jobless claims to be released today in the U.S. will probably push the four-week total above 22 million, essentially wiping out all the job gains since the last recession. Consensus sees 5.5 million filings, a figure that’s off the charts historically but an improvement over last week’s 6.6 million. However, the whisper number has climbed to 6.8 million. Many expect the jobless rate to reach 20% this month — and keep rising.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times BST)

• 7:00 a.m.: Germany March CPI
• 10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Feb. Industrial Production
• 1:30 p.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
• 2:30 p.m.: BOE’s Tenreyro speaks

Corporate Events

Earnings include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Abbott, Taiwan Semiconductor