Morning Report – Thursday 3rd December

Jon Robson, Head of Trading

“As the risk on mood continues across most asset classes, demand for the dollar is fading rapidly. The greenback continues to make new multi-year lows against a basket of currencies and we have entered new trading ranges in a number of pairs.”

Main Headlines

The UK officially became the first country to approve a Covid-19 vaccine yesterday. The Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine will start being rolled out as early as next week to the most vulnerable and healthcare workers. The vaccine rollout could be completed by next Summer.

Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer expressed support for the $908 billion fiscal stimulus package which was introduced by a group of bipartisan senators. This is way off Pelosi’s original $2.2 trillion bill passed by House Democrats in October, but due to the Republican makeup of the Senate she must compromise to get a deal through.

GBP

The pound is higher against both the euro and dollar this morning. Brexit has dominated the news cycle, and the pound is reacting to any information from senior officials. The pound fell when Michel Barnier said that key differences remained but recanted its losses when Rishi Sunak said that UK negotiators would do what they could to get a trade deal done. Brexit will also be the main topic of discussion today as there is little economic data released.

EUR

The euro is unchanged against the dollar in early morning trading today and hit another record high yesterday. Germany has extended its lockdown until 10th January, despite falling Covid-19 cases in the country, which will hit economic activity significantly. Composite and Services PMI’s are released for most major European economies this morning and will likely show a sharp fall in economic activity due to the lockdowns in November.

USD

The dollar is mostly unchanged against a set of major currencies including the Japanese Yen. The US had its deadliest day ever as Covid-19 deaths topped 2,700 and 100,000 hospitalisations were recorded for the first time. This is likely the fallout from mass travelling seen during Thanksgiving and gives a stark warning to officials around the world about how lax they can afford to let restrictions get during the Christmas period.

Markets

Global stocks reached record highs led by positive developments on the US fiscal stimulus bill, and the UK’s approval of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine. Next week remains a key week for markets, as developments will be made on fiscal stimulus, Brexit and the vaccine rollout. Oil prices are flat but headway is being made in the OPEC+ meeting, and the odds of a deal being agreed has increased.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)

6:00 a.m.: Russia Nov. services PMI
7:00 a.m.: Turkey Nov. CPI, PPI
8:15 a.m.: Spain Nov. composite, services PMI
8:45 a.m.: Italy Nov. composite, services PMI
8:50 a.m.: France Nov. composite, services PMI
8:55 a.m.: Germany Nov. composite, services PMI
9:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Nov. composite, services PMI
9:30 a.m.: U.K. Nov. composite, services PMI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Oct. retail sales
1:30 p.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims