Morning Report – Thursday 5th November

Main Headlines

Joe Biden was confirmed to have won Wisconsin and Michigan part of the ‘Blue Wall’ to take him on the edge of winning the Presidency. Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia would push the former VP over 270 electoral college votes, but all three remain too close to call.

In a scathing attack on democracy, Donald Trump claimed that the Democrats were stealing the election and has sued to temporarily halt counting in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, the three states he is projected to lose. Mr Trump also said he would go to the Supreme Court.

UK politicians voted to pass a four week lockdown in the House of Commons by 516-38, of which 32 were Conservative rebels. The lockdown started at midnight on Thursday morning and will last until the 2nd December.

GBP

The pound is trading higher against the dollar and euro this morning. Sterling reversed a small decline, after the Bank of England decided to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.10% but increased Quantitative Easing by £150 billion to £895 billion. The bank also forecasts 2.1% CPI inflation in 2021.

EUR

The euro is trading slightly higher against the dollar in early morning trading. Brexit talks continue this week, and currently no news is good news as both sides warn that very serious divergences remain. Eurozone retail sales year-on-year numbers are expected to surpass the 3.7% seen in October.

USD

The dollar is trading relatively flat against most major currencies, and is volatile in early morning trading today. The dollar is caught between markets unhappy that there will likely be a divided Congress leading to a smaller fiscal stimulus package but happy that Joe Biden has most likely claimed victory. Investors will look out for any aggressive language from Trump over conceding, and the small matter of an overshadowed FOMC meeting tonight.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)

7:00 a.m.: BOE rate decision, monetary policy report
7:00 a.m.: Germany Sept. Factory Orders
8:30 a.m.: Germany Oct. Construction PMI
8:30 a.m.: Sweden 3Q GDP
9:00 a.m.: Norway rate decision
9:00 a.m.: U.K. Oct. New Car Registrations
9:30 a.m.: U.K. Oct. Construction PMI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Sept. Retail Sales
10:00 a.m.: EU Commission publishes economic forecasts
11:00 a.m.: ECB’s Villeroy speaks
11:40 a.m.: ECB’s Guindos speaks
1:15 p.m.: ECB’s Muller, Holzmann speak
1:30 p.m.: Czech rate decision
1:30 p.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
3:00 p.m.: ECB’s Weidmann speaks
3:10 p.m.: ECB’s Schnabel speaks
7:00 p.m.: FOMC rate decision