Morning Report – Tuesday 1st September

Main Headlines

Asian stocks rose with U.S. and European futures overnight, oil rallied and gold climbed with industrial metals. The yuan touched the highest since 2019 as manufacturing data indicated that exports are underpinning a recovery. A stronger yen weighed down Japanese shares.

Global trade is on course to recover more quickly from the pandemic than after the 2008 financial crisis, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Shipping volumes are already back at levels that took more than a year to reach following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, hinting at a V-shaped recovery. “The current situation is significantly better” than a decade ago, the institution’s President Gabriel Felbermayr said.

GBP

Sterling has benefited from another wave of dollar selling to extend its gains to levels not seen since late last year. Additionally, Japan’s foreign minister said a broad agreement on a Japan-UK trade deal is close. BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden and Vlieghe are due to address the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday.

EUR

The euro rallied along with its major peers against the dollar, which extended losses at the start of a new month to trade at its lowest since May 2018. Germany expects the economic impact from Covid-19 to be smaller than it earlier estimated, a person familiar said. The government predicted in April the economy would contract by 6.3% this year before rebounding with growth of 5.2% in 2021. It will present new forecasts today.

USD

The dollar fell toward multi year lows against most major currencies on Tuesday as investors stepped up bets the Federal Reserve’s new policy framework meant U.S. rates would stay lower than rates in other countries.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times BST)

8:00 a.m.: Turkey Aug. Manufacturing PMI
8:15 a.m.: Spain Aug. Manufacturing PMI
8:45 a.m.: Italy Aug. Manufacturing PMI
8:50 a.m.: France Aug. Manufacturing PMI
8:55 a.m.: Germany Aug. Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment
9:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Aug. Manufacturing PMI
9:00 a.m.: Italy July Unemployment
9:30 a.m.: U.K. July Mortgage Approvals, Aug. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area July Unemployment Rate, Aug. CPI
10:30 a.m.: Germany sells linkers
2:45 p.m.: U.S. Aug. Manufacturing PMI