Morning Report – Wednesday 4th November

Main Headlines

The US Presidential election looks like it could be going the way of Trump however, this may take some time to confirm due to the large increase of mail-in ballots in battleground states. Trump has done better than polls suggested by taking Texas and Florida, but there are still some permutations which could enable Biden to claim the presidency.

Donald Trump is performing better in key battle ground states and has also taken key ‘bellweather’ state Ohio as well as North Carolina, while Biden scored a win in Arizona. The election will come down to the ‘blue wall’ of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan which will release results over the next few days.
Twitter blocked a Donald Trump tweet claiming that Democrats are trying to “STEAL the election” on grounds that it is misleading. This spells a worst possible scenario for markets as it increases the chance that Trump will contest the result leading to heightened uncertainty and a risk-off mood.

GBP

The pound is relatively flat against the dollar in a morning of volatile trading as election results seeped in. Boris Johnson will face a Commons vote over his plan to introduce a new lockdown and extend the furlough scheme. It is expected to pass but will face severe opposition from Tory MPs.

EUR

The euro is falling against the dollar in early morning trading today. It is Brexit Groundhog Day for the EU, as Michel Barnier is set to report that progress was made, but key differences still remain. The Eurozone is set to release Services PMI numbers today which may come in better than expected.

USD

The dollar rose in early morning trading today against most major currencies including the Japanese Yen. When news broke out that Trump was set to win in Florida, against poll expectations, markets reacted with a risk-off theme as a Biden victory was priced in. Treasury yields fell nearly 10 basis points, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 2% as investors looked to invest in ‘safe haven’ Tech assets.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All times GMT)

8:00 a.m.: ECB’s de Cos speaks in Spanish parliament
8:00 a.m.: Spain Oct. Unemployment
8:15 a.m.: Spain Oct. Composite, Services PMI
8:45 a.m.: Italy Oct. Composite, Services PMI
8:45 a.m.: ECB’s Panetta speaks
8:50 a.m.: France Oct. Composite, Services PMI
8:55 a.m.: Germany Oct. Composite, Services PMI
9:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Oct. Composite, Services PMI
9:30 a.m.: U.K. Oct. Composite, Services PMI
10:00 a.m.: Euro-Area Sept. PPI
2:30 p.m.: ECB’s de Cos speaks online
3:00 p.m.: ECB’s Schnabel speaks
3:30 p.m.: EIA U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement takes effect