November 10, 2021

“The dollar was buoyed against major peers on Wednesday after a slight drop in the past three days, trading near a one-month low to the yen, with investors still holding out for US inflation data for an inclination as to when the central bank might raise interest rates.”

Sam Cornford, Partner and Head of Trading

Main Headlines

Pfizer has asked the US Food and Drug Administration to expand authorisation of its Covid-19 booster shot to all adults in a move to address concerns about waning immunity for vaccinated people ahead of the winter. The US pharma company said on Tuesday its request was based on results from a late-stage trial involving more than 10,000 participants, which demonstrated a booster dose was 95 per cent effective against symptomatic Covid-19. The application will be reviewed by the FDA just months after a similar request by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech sparked a contentious debate among officials over whether boosters were needed by all Americans at a time when vaccination rates in the developing world were very low.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will drop into the COP26 climate conference on Wednesday in an attempt to raise the temperature on negotiators, following the publication of the “cover report” which details the successes and failures of the summit on Tuesday evening. That document will shape the coming years of global climate discussions. With the two-week talks due to close on Friday, Johnson will enter various negotiating rooms on Wednesday to take stock of the talks and send a message to ministers and negotiators to “dig deep,” Johnson will meet with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Wednesday as the pair look to shove the talks forward.

GBP

Sterling is higher against the euro and lower against the dollar in overnight trade. Ireland’s Deputy PM, Tanaiste Leo Varadkar stated no-one wanted to see the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in jeopardy, but that Ireland had begun to “dust down” contingency preparations in case London acts unilaterally to suspend some parts of the so-called Northern Ireland protocol, fuelling concerns that disagreements over Brexit may spark an EU-UK trade war. Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, confirmed on Tuesday that it will become compulsory for frontline NHS staff in England to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19, setting a deadline for the beginning of April to give 103,000 unvaccinated workers time to get both jabs.

EUR

The euro is lower against most majors overnight. In France, three people thought to be linked to the suspect who stabbed a police officer in Cannes on Monday have also been arrested and taken into custody. Emmanuel Macron announced new vaccination requirements Tuesday as coronavirus cases start to rise across France again, including tying so-called vaccine passports for entering certain spaces to booster shots for those aged 65 and older. The European Parliament is set to approve a resolution condemning Poland’s near-total ban on abortion on Thursday against a backdrop of street protests in response to the restrictions. Backed by a wide coalition of political groups, including the centre-right European People’s Party, the resolution is almost guaranteed to succeed.

USD

The dollar is well-bid against most majors in early morning trade. The US Department of Justice is preparing to launch a crackdown on corporate crime with the first cases expected within weeks, according to senior DOJ official John Carlin, after the Biden administration pledged to take a tougher stance on white collar crime. Democratic party members of the US Congress attending the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, led by Nancy Pelosi, attempted to inject a positive tone into talks that remain stymied by a lack of US political capital. The House Speaker told the summit that Washington remains poised to pass “the most ambitious and consequential” climate legislation of all time, President Biden’s $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better” package. A failure to do so before COP26 has cast a shadow over US participation in Glasgow.

Markets

Stocks and equity futures fell Wednesday as Chinese data fuelled concerns about inflationary pressures in the global economy. Treasury yields climbed ahead of a report on U.S. consumer prices. MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share gauge declined and China’s market struggled after a report showed factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. Retail inflation also topped estimates. China’s property sector continues to damp sentiment: developer Fantasia Holdings Group Co. plunged and indebted China Evergrande Group faces a payment test on dollar bonds. U.S. and European futures retreated after the S&P 500 dropped for the first time in nine sessions, hurt by financial shares. The Nasdaq 100 skidded on Tesla Inc.’s loss of $199 billion in value amid a range of negative headlines. Longer maturity U.S. Treasuries pared a climb and the dollar ticked up. Yields on U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities were near record lows.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

8:00 a.m.: Germany, Denmark, Norway, Lithuania, Romania Oct. CPI

9:00 a.m.: Austria Sept. industrial production

9:00 a.m.: Czech Republic Oct. CPI

9:30 a.m.: Riksbank financial stability report

10:00 a.m.: Italy Sept. industrial production

10:00 a.m.: Bulgaria Sept. retail sales

10:00 a.m.: Genscape Europe ARA crude inventory report

10:30 a.m.: Bank of Italy banks and monthly statistics report

10:30 a.m.: ECB’s Elderson speaks

11:00 a.m.: Greece Sept. industrial production, Oct. CPI

3:00 p.m.: BOE’s Tenreyro speaks on stagnation after Covid-19

5:00 p.m.: Russia Nov. 8 CPI

6:00 p.m.: Riksbank’s Breman speaks

High-Yield Bond Q&A: Amundi Pioneer’s Feltus

Corporate Events

Earnings include Disney, Bumble, Beyond Meat, Allianz, Adidas, Tencent, Credit Agricole, Saras, Engie, E.ON, SoFi Technologies, Dutch Bros, Opendoor, Siemens Energy, Shift4, Progenity, GeVo

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