November 15, 2021

“As traders awaiting fresh tips on the state of the US economy following bets on interest rate hikes last week, the dollar eased back from its 16-month high versus major peers on Monday, off the back of surging inflation. Investors will watch comments coming out of Biden and Xi Jinping’s bilateral summit closely today, as the world’s two largest economies engage in trade talks.”

Tim Hallinan, Trading Director

Main Headlines

House Democrats will return this week with the goal of passing a $2 trillion social spending and climate package, known as the Build Back Better bill. Despite this, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appears to have enough votes to pass the Build Back Better bill, after a group of centrist Democrats who held up the bull earlier this month committed to vote for the legislation no later than this week, as long as cost and revenue estimates from the Congressional Budget Office largely line up with administration figures showing the bill is fully paid for. The Head of the Progressive Caucasus, Pramila Jayapal and the Centrist from New Jersey, Josh Gottheimer, both of whom requested the data, both commented they expected the bill to pass this week.

A new £1 trillion a year export plan is due to be announced as the post-Brexit target by UK ministers, detailing a return to the ambitious export target set in 2012 which was never reached. Prior Conservative governments failed to reach £1 trillion in exports by 2020, however Boris Johnson’s government will aim to reach the target by 2030. The new target will be unveiled as part of the UK’s international trade and investment week, which begins on Monday, the first since the UK left the single market. Johnson’s cabinet will be under pressure to show that leaving the EU does in fact allow Britain to strike free trade deals directly and effectively with other nations, without red tape and extra costs.

GBP

Sterling is well-bid against the dollar but lower against the euro in overnight trade. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has professed that the international pact reached over the weekend on fighting climate change will be “game-changing,” but added that he was disappointed by efforts to water down the final text, particularly weakening commitments to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Counter-terrorism officers arrested three men after a vehicle exploded outside a hospital in Liverpool, with one person declared dead at the scene and another wounded. Three men – aged 29, 26, and 21 – were detained in the Kensington area of the city and arrested under the Terrorism Act. NHS Since September 20^th, more than a million children between 12 and 15 years old in England have received a Covid-19 vaccine, according to NHS figures.

EUR

The euro is well-bid against most majors overnight. NATO countries have warned that Russia could attempt to invade Ukraine as early as December, following the passage of 90,000 Russian troops to the Eastern border of Ukraine. China has accused the EU of risking damage to global supply chains by imposing ‘discriminatory practices’ on foreign businesses such as regulatory and trade barriers, calling EU trade policy “unilateral and inward looking”. Austria is imposing a new nationwide lockdown from Monday on people not fully vaccinated against the coronavirus or recently recovered from the disease, who will only be allowed to leave the house for essential trips such as work. The decision is expected to impact some 2 million people from the population of 9 million. The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is set to approve new sanctions against Belarus, targeting people and entities involved in deliberately fuelling the migrant crisis on the border with Poland.

USD

The dollar is lower against most majors in early morning trade. Xi Jinping and Biden go into their virtual summit today with Taiwan and China’s economic practices to be discussed. Janet Yellen and Anthony Blinken will attend. Stubbornly high inflation is putting the Democrats legislative agenda at risk, as prices jumped 6.2% in October, forcing the White House to talk about measures to combat higher prices on groceries, cars, gasoline, rent and medical care, as the President maintains inflation is transitory. Covid-19 cases are climbing in places like the upper Midwest, Southwest and parts of the Northeast, as the seven-day average of new cases hit 70,000, according to John Hopkins University. The US military confirmed for the first time that it was responsible for an airstrike on the town of Baghuz in Syria, targeting Islamic State fighters, which killed 80 people on 18 March 2019.

Markets

Asian stocks were mixed Monday amid data showing steadier economic growth in China as well as ongoing challenges in the nation’s troubled property sector. Treasuries were steady and the dollar slipped. Shares fluctuated in Hong Kong and dipped in China, where traders weighed stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial output, central bank liquidity support and a drop in home prices. Japanese equities gained, with stimulus plans softening the blow of an economic contraction. European and S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 contracts rose.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

7:00 a.m.: Finland Oct. CPI

8:00 a.m.: Denmark Oct. PPI, 3Q GDP indicator

8:30 a.m.: Bloomberg Nov. Eurozone economic survey

9:30 a.m.: Sweden Oct. CPI

9:30 a.m.: U.K. Nov. Bloomberg economic survey

10:00 a.m.: Poland Oct. CPI

10:30 a.m.: BOE’s Haskel speaks at Resolution Foundation

11:00 a.m.: Euro-area Sept. trade balance

11:00 a.m.: ECB’s Lagarde speaks at EU Parliament

2:30 p.m.: Ukraine 3Q GDP

4:45 p.m.: ECB’s Guindos speaks in Frankfurt

EIA monthly drilling activity report

Adipec oil and gas conference in Abu Dhabi begins

EU ministers review draft of the bloc’s Strategic Compass

Boris Johnson delivers Lord Mayor’s Banquet speech

Corporate Events

Earnings include Warner Music, Galaxy Digital, WeWork, Endeavor, IonQ, Nordex, Oatly, Danimer Scientific, Desktop Metal, AECOM, RumbleON, Vivint Smart Home, DingDong, Tyson

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