November 1, 2021

“The markets are looking ahead to tomorrow, when the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce a tapering of stimulus. The surge in inflation solidified bets on a US rates lift-off around the middle of next year. However, they could be shaken again this Friday, with the release of the monthly payrolls report.”

Sam Cornford, Partner and Head of Trading

Main Headlines

The US and the EU have agreed to ease tariffs on billions of dollars of steel and aluminium products. The US agreed to remove the duties it placed on EU export of such products up to a certain threshold, with anything beyond that still subject to the additional tariffs. The EU will also suspend its retaliatory duties, effectively ending punitive measures on as much as $10 billion of each other’s goods. The full suspension of the tariffs will last for two years, during which time the EU and U.S. will work toward a global accord that would permanently end the tariff regime. Biden and von der Leyen hailed the agreement on Sunday in Rome on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

Boris Johnson has warned there is “a huge way still to go” at the COP26 climate summit, after G20 leaders agreed to stop financing coal power overseas but not to phase it out at home. In a summit in Rome to pave the way for progress at the COP26 gathering in Glasgow, G20 leaders also pledged to take steps to limit global warming to 1.5C — the first time that target had been mentioned in a G20 leaders’ communique. Johnson and Macron are heading for a full frontal confrontation over fishing rights – the two held a 30-minute tête-à-tête on the margins of the summit in Rome, but Downing Street and the Elysée Palace released contrasting statements on the meeting.

GBP

Sterling is weaker against most major currencies this morning. Retailers in England hoping for a large cut in business rates in 2023 risk being disappointed after the government appeared to rule out scrapping the so-called fiscal neutrality rule in the commercial property tax, experts have warned. The UK government will launch a fresh five-year push for more women on listed company boards, to build on the work carried out by a previous campaign, the Hampton-Alexander review. The UK has eased its timetable for implementing the latest global bank capital standards, Basel III, but stopped short of the 2-year delay recently announced by the EU.

EUR

The euro is higher versus the pound but lower against the dollar overnight. Gas prices in the UK and continental Europe tumbled by as much as a fifth on Friday on further signs Russia will increase exports to the region after restricting supplies for months. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Portugal’s president, is preparing to dissolve parliament and call an election two years ahead of schedule after António Costa’s minority government collapsed last week. After sparking hope among Europe’s flagging centre-left parties by showing that overturning austerity in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis was not incompatible with EU fiscal rules or stability, Costa now faces a snap election that could leave Portugal without a clear government option.

USD  

The dollar is stronger against most majors in the early morning trade. US allies are lobbying Joe Biden not to change American policy on the use of nuclear weapons amid concern the president is considering a “no first use” declaration that could undermine long-established deterrence strategies aimed at Russia and China. Joe Biden acknowledged on Friday that the US treatment of France had been “clumsy” in its handling of the launch of a new security pact with the UK and Australia last month that had excluded and enraged Paris. Meanwhile, new cases, hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 are declining in most states.

Markets

Most Asian stocks rose Monday after the outcome of Japan’s election bolstered expectations for fiscal stimulus and as all-time highs for US shares encouraged some investor optimism. The yen weakened. Equities jumped more than 2% in Japan, where Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party defied forecasts by preserving its outright majority. Stocks dipped in China amid data signaling economic weakness due to power shortages, surging commodity prices and Covid curbs. A Hong Kong gauge of Chinese technology stocks fell. US and European futures advanced.The US 10-year Treasury note was steady and the gap between 5-year and 30-yields shrank. Short-term yields from Canada to Australia have jumped on bets that monetary authorities must hike interest rates to curb inflation. Traders are awaiting central bank meetings in the US, UK and Australia this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to scale back bond purchases.

Main Economic Data/Central Banks/Government (All Times CET)

7:00 a.m.: Russia Oct. manufacturing PMI
8:00 a.m.: Turkey Oct. manufacturing PMI
8:30 a.m.: Sweden Oct. manufacturing PMI
9:00 a.m.: Netherlands Oct. manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m.: Norway Oct. manufacturing PMI
10:30 a.m.: U.K. Oct. manufacturing PMI
12:00 p.m.: U.K. OBR chiefs testify
4:15 p.m.: U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak testifies
Bloomberg OPEC production survey
Holiday in France, Spain and Italy

Corporate Events

Earnings include Public Storage, McKesson, Arista Networks, Reality Income, NXP Semiconductors, Daimondback Energy, SBA Communications, Simon Property Group, Nutrien, Williams Companies, PG&E, Ryanair, Avis, GXO Logistics, ON Semiconductor and The Mosaic Company.

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